Updated: Feb 1, 2022
The market is rebounding slightly and offering opportunities to adjust trades. Today (1Feb) I managed some ITM short puts with an aggressive roll in IWM to take advantage. This trade was completely wrong directionally. I sustained a ~14% move against me and was still able to adjust the position and increase my probability of exiting for a profit.
For a more in depth video recap: https://youtu.be/Mya8XAdjhCo
IWM trading around $218: On 6Jan - I STO (5) 18Feb 210P @ 4.00. See chart below:
IWM ran below my short strike for most of the trade (and still is). With the last few days of market rebound, I opted to roll the position, for a few reasons:
I had around $1.15 in time value left in the options. I at times will wait a bit longer to minimize how much theta I'm buying back.
In this case, the 210s were far ITM (around a 0.76 delta even after the rally), the probability of these moving OTM is low. A quick look at the probabilities confirms this, around a 25% chance of being above 210 by 18Feb.
I opted to use this as an opportunity to roll my SP while adding some risk. I add risk very carefully, especially in markets like these. However, I've been planning to increase exposure in IWM regardless and have been holding off because I knew I'd need to adjust this trade.
I opted to gain exposure in the 4Mar 195P @ 3.94, doubling the trade size to gain the desired exposure and maintain a credit.
At this point in time, I'm still around 30% scaled into the trade allocation, plenty of room to expand in. (This allocation includes all current open IWM positions, not just this individual trade).
-T1 6Jan: STO (5) 18Feb 210P @ 4.00 | $2,000 Net Credit
-T2 1Feb: BTC @ 9.50 | $-4,750 debit
Realized Net Loss = $-2,750
-T3 1Feb: STO (10) 4Mar 195P @ $3.94 | $3,940 Net Credit
Unrealized Net PnL = $1,190
-First profit taking opportunity is when the new position is trading around $1.19. This is the breakeven point on the trade. I do not intend to exit here, but this is the first profit stop that I will analyze. I will target something closer to <$0.25 (depending on DTE).
-Loss management will first occur when K=S. Depending on what that looks like I'll either look to roll, or wait. Much like I did on this one. The initial trade fell ITM 6 days in and remained ITM until I managed today. Waiting can be a powerful tool.
-I will continue to monitor this position against the rest of my IWM CS allocation (I have another 6 strikes covered at the moment). I intend to continue scaling into IWM but as I did with this one, I will likely wait to add more exposure based on how my existing positions look.
I was completely wrong directionally, I will still turn the trade to a profit. That's why I like options.