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Outlier Insights Newsletter Week of 25Sep

LOOKOUT BELOW. 6M Daily in SPY, we've quickly dropped below most recent resistance at $373, closing in on YTD lows of $362. We saw some short covering late Friday, leading to a half-hearted rally.

esInvests Updates.

  • Rolling options is a central aspect to many of my strategies. However, there are a TON if misconceptions regarding the nuanced mechanics. Let's dig in here.

  • I connected w/ Bob Wheeler and podcaster and CPA to discuss taxes for trader. Check it out here.

Trading & Market Commentary. Rate raises & Fed messaging

  • The Fed raised rates another 75bps, taking the new target rate to 300-325bps

  • The Fed also clearly restated their focus on combating inflation. This will come at the cost of the markets.

  • We're expecting another rate increase at the next Fed meeting on 2 November. As of writing this, it's a 72.9% probability for another 50-75bps rate increase.

Exposure in IWM I entered in IWM to gain exposure as we close in on YE. I fully anticipate managing this trade either via adjusting or taking assignment simply because I'm still quite bearish short-term. However, it's important to maintain some level of exposure, so I'm striking a balance via smaller sizing.

  • On 22Sep in IWM: STO (10) 21Oct 164P @ 3.29

  • This isn't part of the $250K test account yet, I'll likely wait until the new year to launch those with a blank slate

Reports this week I'm watching

  • 26 Sep: Dallas Fed Mfg Outlook

  • 27 Sep: Fed Powell Speaks, US Durable Goods, US New Home Sales

  • 28 Sep: Fed Powell Speaks, US Crude Oil Inventory

  • 29 Sep: US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP QoQ Revised

  • 30 Sep: Eurozone CPI YoY, US Consumer Spending MoM

Be An Outlier! Erik I am not a financial advisor - I do not make financial recommendations and I do not provide investment advice. All content shared is for educational and entertainment purposes only.


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