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Market Commentary_1 May

Market Commentary. (excerpt from the Weekly Launch)

  • I've said it much of this year and continue to maintain my skepticism towards the market. I haven't cracked 25% invested year to date. I see plenty of opportunity, that I'd be scrambling to take advantage of - in another market. Not this one.

  • GDP came in -1.4%. The markets priced in a soft landing on the report and the White House has been messaging the same. HOWEVER, the Fed now has yet another stone to add to their pack while addressing the current economy. Raising rates during negative GDP against trying to raise GDP (which typically increases rates) - rock and a hard place.

  • Earnings are continuing along with some notable moves. NFLX came in with a big miss despite a beat (expected $2.92 vs $3.53 actual). They're struggling driving their subscription base and forward projections were soft.

  • TWTR has behaved interestingly following the news that the Board accepted Elon's original offer. It closed at $49.02 (still maintaining strength above $47.92), indicating perceived volatility in the deal actually closing. The relationship between TSLA and TWTR has had a HUGE divergence from the 10D to 3D, from nearly 1 to -0.66. Big pairs trade opportunity here.

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